$20M Millionaire · rounds 18–20 · ESPN 53-man projections, 2026-08-28

Terminal Dart Board

For every starting QB, the pass-catchers on his team in projected depth-chart order, so that when the engine reaches for a stack mate at pick 227 it knows a real WR3 from a player who may be cut on Sunday. Cutdown to 53 has now landed (Aug 30), and these projections predate it — every row below is a pre-cutdown forecast that has been superseded by fact, so re-research before the next session. Green rows are live in rounds 18–20; faded rows are gone before then and are shown only to fix the ordering; red rows are not in the projected 53 at all.

teams researched

301

ranked pass-catchers

120

live in R18–20

not in the 53

flagged

darts on the board

Ownership below is the snapshot baked into the engine data.

What the engine now does with this

The × column is the exact multiplier tool/_engine.js applies from round 15 on. It is live in v3.50 — this page is a readout of the shipped data, not a proposal.
Not in the projected 53 → ×0.70. Categorical, and the whole point: his season may not exist. It is a fact about the player, so it applies whether or not he would complete a stack. Unsigned free agents take the same fade.
In the 53 → a symmetric ±12% on his slot in the room, centred on the middle of the list. This only ever decides which mate, never whether to stack — the repo has rejected paying more for correlation five separate ways (dartstack, matedeep, stackla, stackreach, pwgs), and this is not that lever.
Flagged → a further ×0.80 for IR, suspension, bubble or trade-candidate status.
It self-corrects the dart board: Christian Kirk is a 1.25 dart and a bubble player with a calf injury, so he nets ×0.93. Odell Beckham is a 1.25 dart who "barely snuck onto the roster", so he nets ×0.88. You do not have to hand-tune the two against each other.

Four things this research changed

Brandon Aiyuk is blacklisted. He is on the reserve/left-squad list, ineligible to play for any team, and has not sought reinstatement — the 49ers GM has said he is not on the roster. He is priced at 228 and you had just approved him as a 1.20 dart. Not a bad pick; an impossible one.
The ATL quarterback override was wrong, and has since been overtaken again. D.qb1 forced Penix as Atlanta's QB1; Penix has a knee injury and Tua was the projected starter, so the override was mis-pricing every Atlanta stack, and it was dropped. Tua has since been blacklisted — so this page now anchors Atlanta on Penix anyway, mirroring the engine, which skips a blacklisted QB because a QB you will never draft cannot complete your stack. All 32 teams were checked — Las Vegas (Cousins over Mendoza) is the only override still needed.
Two approved darts are hurt. Chris Bell (MIA) is on IR with an ACL and LeQuint Allen Jr. (JAX) has a soft-tissue injury that may land him on IR. Both removed. DJ Giddens drops 1.25 → 1.12: he is competing for a roster spot and was slowed in the preseason.
Keenan Allen was still listed as a free agent. He signed a one-year deal with Indianapolis; the catalog now has him on IND with the right bye, which also makes him a legitimate Daniel Jones mate.

Show

ARIJacoby Brissett 168

WR
1	Marvin Harrison Jr.	64	×1.12
2	Michael Wilson	74	×1.08
3	Kendrick Bourne	229	×1.04
4	Devin Duvernay	—	×1.00
5	Simi Fehoko	—	×0.96
6	Jalen Brooks	227	×0.92
7	Reggie Virgil	—	×0.88
TE
1	Trey McBride	28	×1.12
2	Elijah Higgins	234	×1.00
3	Teagan Quitoriano	—	×0.88

ATLMichael Penix Jr. 213 Tua Tagovailoa blacklisted

WR
1	Drake London	23	×1.12
2	Jahan Dotson	230	×1.06
3	Olamide Zaccheaus	229	×1.00
4	Zachariah Branch dart 1.25	207	×0.94
5	Chris Blair	—	×0.88
TE
1	Kyle Pitts Sr.	91	×1.12
2	Austin Hooper	—	×1.00
3	Charlie Woerner	—	×0.88

BALLamar Jackson 56

WR
1	Zay Flowers	34	×1.12
2	Rashod Bateman dart 1.20faces potential suspension	221	×0.86
3	Ja'Kobi Lane	140	×1.02
4	Elijah Sarratt	229	×0.98
5	Devontez Walker	228	×0.93
6	LaJohntay Wester	—	×0.88
TE
1	Mark Andrews	141	×1.12
2	Durham Smythe	—	×1.04
3	Matthew Hibner	—	×0.96
4	Josh Cuevas	—	×0.88
✕	Matt Hibner	230	×0.70

BUFJosh Allen 28

WR
1	DJ Moore	40	×1.12
2	Khalil Shakir	134	×1.07
3	Keon Coleman dart 1.25	219	×1.02
4	Joshua Palmer	229	×0.98
5	Skyler Bell	226	×0.93
6	Mecole Hardman Jr.	—	×0.88
TE
1	Dalton Kincaid	103	×1.12
2	Dawson Knox	231	×1.00
3	Jackson Hawes	232	×0.88

CARBryce Young 162

WR
1	Tetairoa McMillan	44	×1.12
2	Jalen Coker	127	×1.07
3	Xavier Legette dart 1.20	231	×1.02
4	Brycen Tremayne	—	×0.98
5	Ja'seem Reed	—	×0.93
6	Jimmy Horn Jr.	227	×0.88
✕	John Metchie III	229	×0.70
TE
1	Tommy Tremble	231	×1.12
2	Mitchell Evans	234	×1.04
3	Ja'Tavion Sanders	231	×0.96
4	Feleipe Franks	—	×0.88
✕	Darren Waller	218	×0.56

CHICaleb Williams 72

WR
1	Rome Odunze	57	×1.12
2	Luther Burden III	47	×1.07
3	Kalif Raymond	230	×1.02
4	Jahdae Walker dart 1.20	228	×0.98
5	Zavion Thomas	225	×0.93
6	Kaden Davis	—	×0.88
TE
1	Colston Loveland	40	×1.12
2	Cole Kmet	229	×1.00
3	Sam Roush	232	×0.88

CINJoe Burrow 63

WR
1	Ja'Marr Chase	3	×1.12
2	Tee Higgins	37	×1.07
3	Andrei Iosivas dart 1.20	229	×1.02
4	Mitch Tinsley	230	×0.98
5	Dohnte Meyers competing with Charlie Jones	227	×0.74
6	Colbie Young	229	×0.88
✕	Noah Thomas	228	×0.70
TE
1	Mike Gesicki	226	×1.12
2	Drew Sample	—	×1.06
3	Tanner Hudson	—	×1.00
4	Erick All Jr.	231	×0.94
5	Jack Endries	228	×0.88

CLEDeshaun Watson 221

WR
1	Jerry Jeudy dart 1.12	198	×1.12
2	KC Concepcion	110	×1.06
3	Denzel Boston	154	×1.00
4	Isaiah Bond	229	×0.94
5	Tylan Wallace	—	×0.88
✕	Cedric Tillman	227	×0.70
TE
1	Harold Fannin Jr.	101	×1.12
2	Blake Whiteheart	—	×1.00
3	Carsen Ryan	—	×0.88

DALDak Prescott 79

WR
1	CeeDee Lamb	11	×1.12
2	George Pickens	24	×1.07
3	Ryan Flournoy	171	×1.02
4	KaVontae Turpin	229	×0.98
5	Jonathan Mingo	—	×0.93
6	Camden Brown	—	×0.88
✕	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	228	×0.56
TE
1	Jake Ferguson	130	×1.12
2	Brevyn Spann-Ford	232	×1.00
3	Luke Schoonmaker	—	×0.88
✕	Michael Trigg	228	×0.70

DENBo Nix 106

WR
1	Jaylen Waddle	34	×1.12
2	Courtland Sutton	78	×1.06
3	Marvin Mims Jr. dart 1.12	227	×1.00
4	Troy Franklin dart 1.12	223	×0.94
5	Pat Bryant dart 1.25	176	×0.88
TE
1	Evan Engram	220	×1.12
2	Adam Trautman	230	×1.04
3	Nate Adkins	—	×0.96
4	Justin Joly	229	×0.88

DETJared Goff 103

WR
1	Amon-Ra St. Brown	7	×1.12
2	Jameson Williams	51	×1.06
3	Isaac TeSlaa	198	×1.00
4	Greg Dortch	232	×0.94
5	Dominic Lovett	—	×0.88
TE
1	Sam LaPorta	87	×1.12
2	Brock Wright	228	×1.00
3	Tyler Conklin	225	×0.88

GBJordan Love 115

WR
1	Christian Watson	55	×1.12
2	Jayden Reed	89	×1.07
3	Matthew Golden	100	×1.02
4	Skyy Moore	227	×0.98
5	Savion Williams	231	×0.93
6	Bo Melton	—	×0.88
TE
1	Tucker Kraft	74	×1.12
2	Josh Whyle	231	×1.00
3	Drake Dabney	—	×0.88

HOUC.J. Stroud 148

WR
1	Nico Collins	25	×1.12
2	Tank Dell dart 1.12working back from knee	188	×0.86
3	Kayshon Boutte	167	×1.04
4	Xavier Hutchinson dart 1.20	226	×1.00
5	Jaylin Noel dart 1.20	218	×0.96
6	Lewis Bond	229	×0.92
7	Justin Watson	—	×0.88
✕	Jayden Higgins blacklisted	206	×0.56
✕	Sterling Shepard	227	×0.70
TE
1	Dalton Schultz dart 1.12	162	×1.12
2	Cade Stover	—	×1.04
3	Marlin Klein	230	×0.96
4	Foster Moreau	—	×0.88

INDDaniel Jones 139

WR
1	Alec Pierce	105	×1.12
2	Josh Downs	90	×1.07
3	Keenan Allen	152	×1.02
4	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	228	×0.98
5	Ashton Dulin	228	×0.93
6	Coleman Owen	—	×0.88
✕	Deion Burks	226	×0.56
TE
1	Tyler Warren	62	×1.12
2	Mo Alie-Cox	—	×1.04
3	Drew Ogletree	—	×0.96
4	Will Mallory	—	×0.88

JAXTrevor Lawrence 91

WR
1	Jakobi Meyers	132	×1.12
2	Parker Washington	49	×1.06
3	Brian Thomas Jr.	74	×1.00
4	Josh Cameron	—	×0.94
5	CJ Williams	—	×0.88
✕	Travis Hunter blacklisted	182	×0.70
TE
1	Brenton Strange dart 1.20	151	×1.12
2	Nate Boerkircher	231	×1.00
3	Tanner Koziol	227	×0.88

KCPatrick Mahomes 102

WR
1	Rashee Rice returning from injury	27	×0.90
2	Xavier Worthy returning from injury	125	×0.86
3	Tyquan Thornton dart 1.20	226	×1.04
4	Cyrus Allen	163	×1.00
5	Nikko Remigio	—	×0.96
6	Andrew Armstrong	—	×0.92
7	Jalen Royals	228	×0.88
TE
1	Travis Kelce	123	×1.12
2	Noah Gray	230	×1.04
3	Jared Wiley	—	×0.96
4	Jake Briningstool	—	×0.88

LACJustin Herbert 86

WR
1	Ladd McConkey	32	×1.12
2	Tre' Harris dart 1.12	180	×1.07
3	Quentin Johnston	76	×1.02
4	Brenen Thompson	229	×0.98
5	Derius Davis	—	×0.93
6	KeAndre Lambert-Smith	228	×0.88
TE
1	David Njoku	212	×1.12
2	Oronde Gadsden II dart 1.20	186	×1.00
3	Charlie Kolar	222	×0.88

LARMatthew Stafford 95

WR
1	Davante Adams	49	×1.12
2	Puka Nacua	4	×1.07
3	Jordan Whittington competing for the WR3 job	229	×0.82
4	Konata Mumpfield competing for the WR3 job	230	×0.78
5	Xavier Smith	—	×0.93
6	CJ Daniels	226	×0.88
TE
1	Tyler Higbee	229	×1.12
2	Terrance Ferguson dart 1.25	156	×1.06
3	Colby Parkinson	208	×1.00
4	Davis Allen	—	×0.94
5	Max Klare	227	×0.88

LVKirk Cousins 219

WR
1	Tre Tucker dart 1.25	152	×1.12
2	Jalen Nailor dart 1.20	157	×1.06
3	Jack Bech dart 1.25underwhelming camp	230	×0.80
4	Malik Benson	229	×0.94
5	Dareke Young	—	×0.88
✕	Dont'e Thornton Jr.	230	×0.70
TE
1	Brock Bowers	19	×1.12
2	Michael Mayer	227	×1.00
3	Ian Thomas	—	×0.88

MIAMalik Willis 134

WR
1	Malik Washington	149	×1.12
2	Jalen Tolbert dart 1.20	228	×1.06
3	AJ Henning	—	×1.00
4	Caleb Douglas dart 1.25	178	×0.94
5	Kevin Coleman Jr.	228	×0.88
✕	Chris Bell	196	×0.56
✕	Tutu Atwell	229	×0.56
TE
1	Greg Dulcich	185	×1.12
2	Will Kacmarek	228	×1.04
3	Seydou Traore	—	×0.96
4	Ben Sims	—	×0.88

MINKyler Murray 118

WR
1	Justin Jefferson	10	×1.12
2	Jordan Addison	99	×1.06
3	Jauan Jennings	176	×1.00
4	Tai Felton limited role barring injury	230	×0.75
5	Myles Price limited role barring injury	228	×0.70
TE
1	T.J. Hockenson	170	×1.12
2	Josh Oliver	229	×1.00
3	Gavin Bartholomew	—	×0.88

NEDrake Maye 67

WR
1	A.J. Brown	17	×1.12
2	Romeo Doubs	115	×1.07
3	DeMario Douglas	226	×1.02
4	Mack Hollins	227	×0.98
5	Kyle Williams dart 1.20	227	×0.93
6	Efton Chism III dart 1.20	230	×0.88
TE
1	Hunter Henry	155	×1.12
2	Eli Raridon	231	×1.00
3	Tanner Arkin	—	×0.88

NOTyler Shough 125

WR
1	Chris Olave	22	×1.12
2	Devaughn Vele dart 1.12	191	×1.06
3	Barion Brown	229	×1.00
4	Bryce Lance	229	×0.94
5	Bub Means	—	×0.88
✕	Jordyn Tyson	133	×0.56
TE
1	Juwan Johnson	135	×1.12
2	Noah Fant	228	×1.00
3	Oscar Delp	232	×0.88

NYGJaxson Dart 111

WR
1	Malik Nabers	23	×1.12
2	Malachi Fields dart 1.12	181	×1.08
3	Darnell Mooney dart 1.25	225	×1.04
4	Darius Slayton	230	×1.00
5	Calvin Austin III	228	×0.96
6	Braxton Berrios	—	×0.92
7	Odell Beckham Jr. dart 1.25barely snuck onto the roster	225	×0.70
TE
1	Isaiah Likely	115	×1.12
2	Theo Johnson	232	×1.00
3	Chris Manhertz	—	×0.88

NYJGeno Smith 185

WR
1	Garrett Wilson	37	×1.12
2	Adonai Mitchell dart 1.25	166	×1.07
3	Isaiah Williams	230	×1.02
4	Omar Cooper Jr.	192	×0.98
5	Arian Smith	—	×0.93
6	Tim Patrick not a roster lock	—	×0.70
TE
1	Mason Taylor	229	×1.12
2	Kenyon Sadiq dart 1.25	191	×1.04
3	Jeremy Ruckert	—	×0.96
4	Jelani Woods bubble	—	×0.70

PHIJalen Hurts 78

WR
1	DeVonta Smith	30	×1.12
2	Makai Lemon	104	×1.07
3	Dontayvion Wicks dart 1.25	156	×1.02
4	Hollywood Brown dart 1.25	227	×0.98
5	Darius Cooper	227	×0.93
6	Elijah Moore	—	×0.88
TE
1	Dallas Goedert	117	×1.12
2	Eli Stowers	228	×1.04
3	Johnny Mundt	—	×0.96
4	Grant Calcaterra	—	×0.88

PITAaron Rodgers 177

WR
1	DK Metcalf	82	×1.12
2	Michael Pittman Jr.	107	×1.07
3	Germie Bernard dart 1.20	214	×1.02
4	Roman Wilson dart 1.12	230	×0.98
5	Ben Skowronek	—	×0.93
6	Kaden Wetjen dart 1.20	227	×0.88
✕	Eli Heidenreich	228	×0.70
TE
1	Pat Freiermuth	204	×1.12
2	Darnell Washington	229	×1.00
3	Robert Tonyan	228	×0.88

SEASam Darnold 143

WR
1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	6	×1.12
2	Cooper Kupp dart 1.20	206	×1.06
3	Rashid Shaheed	138	×1.00
4	Tory Horton dart 1.25missed over a week with an injury	228	×0.75
5	Montorie Foster Jr.	229	×0.88
TE
1	AJ Barner dart 1.12	181	×1.12
2	Eric Saubert	—	×1.04
3	Elijah Arroyo	230	×0.96
4	Nick Kallerup	—	×0.88

SFBrock Purdy 108

WR
1	Mike Evans	60	×1.12
2	De'Zhaun Stribling	85	×1.08
3	Deebo Samuel Sr.	121	×1.04
4	Demarcus Robinson	230	×1.00
5	Jordan Watkins	229	×0.96
6	Christian Kirk dart 1.25bubble, calf injury	227	×0.74
7	Jacob Cowing	225	×0.88
✕	Ricky Pearsall blacklisted	217	×0.56
✕	Brandon Aiyuk blacklisted	228	×0.56
TE
1	George Kittle	107	×1.12
2	Luke Farrell	—	×1.00
3	Jake Tonges	225	×0.88

TBBaker Mayfield 125

WR
1	Chris Godwin Jr.	70	×1.12
2	Emeka Egbuka	42	×1.07
3	Jalen McMillan dart 1.12	170	×1.02
4	Tez Johnson	231	×0.98
5	Ted Hurst III dart 1.20	210	×0.93
6	Kameron Johnson	—	×0.88
TE
1	Cade Otton	195	×1.12
2	Payne Durham	—	×1.04
3	Ko Kieft	—	×0.96
4	Bauer Sharp	—	×0.88

TENCam Ward 160

WR
1	Calvin Ridley dart 1.25	206	×1.12
2	Wan'Dale Robinson	101	×1.07
3	Carnell Tate	68	×1.02
4	Chimere Dike dart 1.20	230	×0.98
5	Elic Ayomanor	231	×0.93
6	Bryce Oliver	—	×0.88
TE
1	Gunnar Helm dart 1.25	197	×1.12
2	Daniel Bellinger	230	×1.04
3	David Martin-Robinson	—	×0.96
4	Kylen Granson	—	×0.88

WASJayden Daniels 77

WR
1	Terry McLaurin	55	×1.12
2	Stefon Diggs	85	×1.08
3	Antonio Williams	218	×1.04
4	Treylon Burks	231	×1.00
5	Jaylin Lane	226	×0.96
6	Luke McCaffrey dart 1.20	227	×0.92
7	Dyami Brown	234	×0.88
TE
1	Chig Okonkwo	149	×1.12
2	John Bates	—	×1.04
3	Ben Sinnott	229	×0.96
4	Colson Yankoff	—	×0.88

Depth order is one beat reporter's projection published before cutdown, not a fact — it will be wrong somewhere, and real cuts have now landed (Aug 30), so it IS stale. Re-run python3 web/build_mates.py after refreshing sim/mates_source.py. D.mateScale turns the whole mechanism down (0.5) or off (0) without touching the lists.